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The Outer Box:
Systemic Thinking About Public Issues
by Robert Wicke 11/02/09
This is really part II of the blog, "Thinking Inside the Box:
an Exploration in Honor of International Climate Action Day, posted
here on October 24, "International Climate Action Day."
This is part of what I said there: " 'Think outside the box,'
is something we hear all the time. And, yet, at the same time, the
standard practice is thinking inside the box, at least among those
having an influence on government policies. Worse, it seems to be
a matter of thinking inside a box, which, itself, is inside of another
box."
This
is about that outer box, about thinking systematically, and thinking
in cause and effect on a broader scale. Here are some problems and
effects that would fall within that: The effects of the food system
on human health, the effects of climate change on human health,
the effects of climate change on national security and foreign policy,
the effects of toxics in the environment on human health, the effects
of militarism on our ability to pay for a fix of the malfunctioning
"health system." These are the kinds of interconnections
that may very well be the best way of presenting a progressive point
of view.
Taking
the last of this incomplete list first, it's not just on our ability
to pay for healthcare reform on which military expenditures have
an impact. As Chalmers Johnson has written: "
the defense
budget plus all military expenditures hidden in the budgets for
the departments of Energy, State, Treasury, Veterans Affairs, the
CIA, and numerous other places in the executive branch - already
exceeds a trillion dollars." This is an amount that not only
dwarfs all the other nations in the world, it also dwarfs all of
the domestic expenditures about which the GOP has recently bitterly
complained, as being instrumental in passing along debt to our children
and grandchildren. The costs of Obamacare were held to be a trillion
dollars, but, of course, that was spread over a period of ten years,
not one year, as is true of our military expenditures. Much the
same noises were made over the $787 billion stimulus package, particularly,
the portions to be spent on anything other than tax relief.
Another
way of looking at this, is to view just the costs of the wars the
US has officially been involved in since 2001. The costs of the
war in Iraq and Afghanistan has reached nearly $1 trillion, over
$925 billion, to be more exact. The state legislature for Michigan
has been embroiled in tense sessions leading up to the end of the
budget year crisis as extended. Yet, Michigan taxpayers have shelled
out over $24 billion since 2001 on these two wars, and the cry of
the state GOP is loudly "no new taxes." This is the cry
of people the vast majority of whom support the two wars costing
all this money. These are also the people who caused a fairly major
part of the present crisis period by revoking the single business
tax.
Pick
a pair, any pair, of the questions of the day, nearly always thought
about in isolation one from the other, but actually, very much interrelated.
Try climate change and health, for example. The EPA put out a paper,
entitled "Climate Change - Health and Environmental Effects"
in July of 2008. They examined the effect on health from a number
of different perspectives, the direct effect of increased heat,
the increased presence of "infective parasites", increased
air and water pollution from higher temperatures, extreme weather
events, and reduced agracultural yields, resulting in undernourishment.
When the report was issued, other elements in the Bush administration
panned the report. They did so, for similar reasons to their attempts
to silence Dr. James Hansen, the now better known leading climate
change scientist, who strongly advises that we should be working
on reducing CO2 in the atmosphere to no more than 350ppm.
What
about climate change and national security? A 2004 Pentagon study
concluded that global warming was more of a security threat than
terrorism. They said it would cost millions of lives from "wars
and natural disasters." This is from a secret report, obtained
by the UK Observer. "The [report] predicts that abrupt climate
change could bring the planet to the edge of anarchy as countries
develop a nuclear threat to defend and secure dwindling food, water
and energy supplies."
John
Podesta was Clinton's chief of staff and co-chair of the Obama-Biden
transition team. He also heads a think tank, called the Center for
American Progress. In July, 2008, Podesta underlined the priority
he places on environmental security when he played the role of UN
secretary general in the first-ever international "war game"
focused on climate. That took place at another think tank, the Center
for a New American Security, in cooperation with ten other organizations.
It "brought together business leaders and climate and policy
experts, who acted as representatives of the U.S., EU, China, and
India, to play out climate negotiations in the year 2015. Players
responded to a scenario based on climate simulations developed by
the U.S. Department of Energy's Oak Ridge National Laboratory that
included intense weather extremes and tensions brought on by water
and food shortages." It was based as well on a document, co-authored
by Podesta, entitled The Age of Consequences: the Foreign Policy
and National Security Implications of Global Climate Change.
(November, 2007)
Just
paying attention to the public debates taking place in Congress
and in the media over questions, such as what to do about health
care or how we can provide an adequate brake on accelerating climate
change, often just does not cut it, not at all. Not only are the
types of pairings discussed in the above totally absent, but the
problems really demand systemic thinking beyond what I have just
been examining. This is particularly true of both health care and
climate change. Take just health care. There is such a staggering
level of waste in the health care system in the US, it's almost
impossible to know where to start. We pay almost double per capita
compared to anywhere else, often with much poorer results. In that,
Michael Moore in his examination of private insurance and the health
care systems around the world is quite correct, as is T.J.Reid,
who makes a similar case.
However,
when one looks at the other problems, starting with the other areas
of profit in the system, clearly without other reforms, the results
will fall far short of our expectations. Some of the costs are rooted
in excessive pharmaceutical costs, not only from the prices, which
are sky-high in the US, but from over-prescription, which also drives
up the costs, perhaps even more than the prices. Similarly, the
over-use of medical tests drives up costs, as well as having adverse
consequences for the patients, such as, for example, increased radiation
exposure from too-frequent Cat-scans and mammograms.
Then,
there are the nutritional questions and the environmental questions,
stemming from the various nutritional disasters making up the average
American diet and the presence of toxics in the environment from
the literally thousands of untested and consequently uncontrolled
new chemical compounds coming out each and every year. Just the
simple act of adopting the precautionary principle, maybe something
like the EU's REACH (Registration, Evaluation, Acceptance or Restriction
of Chemicals), would undoubtedly bring down medical costs.
Of
course, we should already be teaching environmental medicine in
US medical schools. It's not there now, for the embarrassingly simple
reason that there are strong private interests barring it. We are
extremely lucky to have a very few strong advocates, such as Dr.
Samuel S. Epstein, but there is not enough research in these areas.
And, where the research has been done, too little reporting on the
results manages to get past the various gate-keepers who keep much
of the public in a state of profound ignorance. Of course, in areas
where toxic exposure has become a public issue, sometimes, ordinary
citizens were able to study what was involved in the threat and
become quite effective opponents.
Draft: do not quote. Notes to be added.
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